Update 4: Refining the two-factor economic model of AI takeoff

Yesterday was an errand day, so I didn’t anticipate getting much done at all, but I ended up running into a few people who’d read this blog and talking about stuff on it, and making an appointment to talk with a couple of other people about AI timelines. Today I intended to put my economic model of AI takeoff into a sufficiently polished form that I could ask some friends for feedback pre-publication. Unfortunately, I was unsure what I wanted the finished thing to be, which presented some motivation challenges. I’ll be spending the rest of the workday, and some of tomorrow morning, thinking that through.

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